Economists with the Virginia Employment Commission predict the unemployment rate will average 6.2 percent this year.
If that holds true, the trust fund that pays out benefits will likely need a loan in 2010.
"Right now, we have enough money to get us through this year, but about this time next year, we'll be out of money," commission senior economist James Wilson said.
In 2008, when the unemployment rate averaged 4.1 percent, the state paid out $516.7 million in claims.
Projections for 2009, based on the 6.2 percent average unemployment rate, put the cost of benefits at $857.4 million.
The state started the year with $546.6 million in its unemployment insurance trust fund and expects to bring in $343.4 million in taxes and interest. At the end of the year, that would mean the fund would have about $32.6 million to spend at the beginning of 2010.
But benefits should not be affected because U.S. law requires that jobless claims be paid, and a loan program exists to cover costs when state money is not there, according to Wilson.
Recently, New York, California, Michigan and three other states have requested federal assistance, which is guaranteed.
"They essentially have a credit card with the federal government to make sure workers continue to get their benefits," said Andrew Stettner, deputy director of the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group focused on employment rights of lower-wage workers.
Employers pay federal and state taxes to fund the unemployment insurance program.
Money from the federal government is used to cover the cost of administering unemployment insurance while state taxes cover payment of the actual benefits.
Employers pay $56 per employee per year to the federal government, and a portion of that money is returned to the state each year.
Virginia's relatively low unemployment rate affects the federal payback, and the state routinely sees a return of about 30 percent, Wilson said.
The average employer in Virginia pays $95 per employee per year to the state, though the amount will range this year from $14.40 to $502.40 per employee per year.
The tax is based on projected unemployment claims. A company's contribution also depends on how many claims have been filed by its former employees over four years.
For large employers, a small layoff may not change the rate much. But small employers who lay off two people from a 10-person staff could get hit with the maximum rate, said David D. Schein, president and general counsel for Claremont Management Group Inc., a human resources consulting firm in Midlothian.
"That experience rating is important," said Schein, who is also a visiting professor at the University of Richmond's Robins School of Business.
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