Leno, 'Idol' rock the TV boat

The TV gods have a wicked sense of humor.

Within two days this week, the programming landscape became as muddied as Tiger Woods' reputation, and, in one case -- yeah, you, NBC -- irrevocably poisoned a historical franchise.

Simon Cowell is counting the minutes until he can bolt from an "American Idol" season that just began Tuesday.

Sarah Palin headed into a part-time TV career on Fox News, a move that was surprising only if you believed that this wasn't her post-governorship plan all along. If nothing else, she sure is a pretty complement to Bill O'Reilly.

And NBC committed late-night suicide.

Affiliates nationwide cried that "The Jay Leno Show," with its meager 4 million-ish viewers, was killing their 11 p.m. local newscasts.

Local NBC affiliate WWBT managed to hang tight: "We were one of the few affiliates in the country that held on to its No. 1 position at 11 p.m., Monday through Sunday," said Paula Hersh, the station's marketing director.

But still, the substitution of Leno instead of "Law & Order" or another drama that might bring in 9 million or 10 million viewers led to significant challenges.

"It was very disruptive for late-news goals and expectations. Our biggest concern wasn't that viewers would go to competitors but that they'd go to the 'off' button," Hersh said. "Of course, we're really excited about NBC getting back into the business of quality dramas [at 10 p.m.]."

What classic karma.

The frugal network, which made perhaps the most idiotic move in recent TV history by moving Leno to prime time solely as a way to save money, now is scrambling to fill its 10 p.m. slot once the Winter Olympics end (Feb. 28); and, depending on how long Conan O'Brien and his lawyers are willing to duel, might owe the ginger-haired host of "The Tonight Show" a buyout sum reportedly in the $35 million to $40 million range.

Then there is the issue of replacing O'Brien, who adamantly and eloquently stated he will not host a "Tonight Show" that would technically be tomorrow (airing at 12:05 a.m.) and might just decide to walk.

Do you think Steve Allen, Jack Paar and Johnny Carson are turning in their graves or giggling as heartily as David Letterman has been every night this week?

But as much as NBC should be flogged for choosing cheap over art -- or, as NBC toady, er, poster boy Jerry Seinfeld put it, having "the guts to try something" -- it gets a tiny pass on what turned out to be a fatal flaw in the Leno-Conan experiment.

How was NBC to know six years ago when it signed O'Brien to replace Leno --who was No 1. at the time and still No. 1 when he passed the mic last summer -- that "technotainment" would kill its plan?

The reason for harnessing O'Brien was to cultivate the younger demographic tuning in for O'Brien's wackier post-"Tonight Show" shtick.

But in 2004, distractions such as Facebook and Twitter were in their infancy or didn't exist. By the time O'Brien got on the air, chunks of that audience had new pastimes that didn't include watching Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

And older audiences comforted by Leno's "try-the-veal-I'll-be-here-all-night" style of humor never warmed to O'Brien's "string dance" and cheeky, sometimes silly, humor.

But NBC needs to brace itself for another tsunami of failure.

Leno has lost millions of viewers -- some to the time change, some to DVRs, some because they just didn't find him funny anymore.

Putting him back at 11:35 p.m. doesn't mean an instant return to the dominant, Letterman-squashing ratings of the past.

Anyone can see that those days are gone forever.

So will a piece of the "American Idol" legacy, come next season.

By then, only one original host, Randy "Dawg" Jackson, will remain, with Cowell off to establish a U.S. version of "The X-Factor," the singing competition he created in 2004 in the U.K.

The show, which spawned a crossover hitmaker in Leona Lewis, is similar to "Idol" in theory and is slated to debut in September 2011.

But with "Idol" airing from January-May and then several months of "X-Factor" in the fall -- both on Fox -- it will be surprising if people aren't talent show-ed out before long.

Cowell is already hinting that he'll reclaim old pal Paula Abdul as an "X-Factor" judge. So will viewers stick with "Idol" because of its name (Lord knows it won't be because of Kara DioGuardi) or head to the "X" because of the daffy chemistry among its hosts, assuming Abdul is on board?

The absence of Cowell on "Idol" means the name, face and attitude synonymous with the franchise are history. Can the show survive without him?

Sure, if you're one of those people who believe "Idol" is really about the kids onstage who are trying to achieve stardom.

But for every reality-show surprise/weepy background story, such as Susan Boyle or Adam Lambert, there are dozens of Charles Grigsbys and Melissa McGhees.

You don't remember their names, do you?

But you remember Cowell's.