It’s too early to write off Leno’s show

Despite widespread speculation that Jay Leno is about to send NBC into oblivion, his 10 p.m. weeknight talk show is doing about what the network expected, as far as ratings are concerned.

We’re not sure NBC expected headlines such as “Is Jay Leno Killing NBC?,“ but network officials keep saying that it’s too early to pass judgment.

It may be too early to write off the financial success. Most critics have passed judgment on the entertainment value and found that Leno is doing the same shtick that he has always done.

You either like it or you don’t. Leno tends to appeal to people older than 50, but he is attracting just barely enough 18-to-49-year-olds to not be a disaster.

After debuting with 18 million viewers and much hype about changing the face of prime-time television, “The Jay Leno Show” has settled down to averaging about 4.5 million to 6.2 million viewers per night.

That would get a drama series canceled but is enough to make NBC about $300 million per year, according to an estimate by one industry analyst. Even with Leno’s $30 million salary, there will be money left over.

But there are other things to consider in weighing the so-called “Leno effect.“

NBC dramas airing at 8 or 9 p.m. such as “Law & Order” have lost viewers by being in an earlier time slot. For example, “Law & Order: SVU,“ once a solid performer, has dropped out of the top 30 shows in Nielsen Media Research’s season-to-date rankings.

And there’s the perception of failure that haunts NBC with every news story about ratings.

Leno’s show can’t crack into the top 50 of the weekly ratings and last week, Leno managed to beat ABC’s new sexy drama “Eastwick,“ and there was immediate speculation that “Eastwick” is doomed.

There also have been reports that Leno’s relatively low ratings are hurting the late newscasts on NBC affiliates. That hasn’t happened in the Tampa-St. Petersburg market because “News Channel 8” at 11 p.m. continues to have a loyal following.

In Leno’s defense, NBC didn’t give him good lead-ins this season. When he follows NBC’s more successful series such as “The Biggest Loser” and “The Office” his numbers go up. But NBC’s new dramas such as “Mercy” and “Trauma” are not performing as well.

Also, broadcast network viewing is down across the board. Overall, NBC is not that far behind its rivals ABC, Fox and CBS. NBC executives continue to point out that the measure of Leno will be over the long-haul and a better time to check his pulse would be at the end of December.