Predicting peak colors tricky business

STAUNTON - With nothing to lose but green pigment, dozens of Shenandoah Valley tourism professionals submitted guesses Thursday for the exact day, hour and minute that leaves will show peak color this year.

The peak brings with it a serious boom in area tourism, but members of the Shenandoah Valley Travel Association who tried to estimate its timing were decidely lighthearted.

“There’s no science in it,“ said Sergei Troubetzkoy, Bedford Director of Tourism, as he watched one man try to guess a peak day. “It’s a lot like the lottery.“

Climate and plant biology experts tend to agree.

“There is some science behind it, but as we say, Mother Nature bats last,“ said Jerry Stenger, director of the climatology office at the University of Virginia. “There are so many different combinations of things that can happen.“

Moisture, temperature, species and location impact the brilliance of color displayed in the fall, Stenger said.

“Usually the best color displays occur when we have ample moisture available to the trees and as autumn progresses, we have a series of warm, sunny days with cool, but not freezing nights,“ he said. “A lot of the brilliance of the display is determined by the amounts of reds and purples we can see in a given year.“

That means dogwood, maple and oak trees play a big role in brilliance. Poplar and hickory trees carry the yellow-gold load.

“When hickory goes it’s like gold: really gold colors. It’s perfect,“ said Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore, a “leaf nut” from Vermont.

“We just kind of get geeked out when we see the leaves change,“ he said.

Cantore said the Shenandoah Valley frequently has a diverse and prolonged fall color show because of the variety of trees and elevations in the area.

“It’s almost the best of everything,“ Cantore said, “and it’s not going to be the same show every week.“

Web sites for Shenandoah National Park, the Weather Channel, Virginia.gov, FoliageNetwork.com and others track color changes with maps, submitted photos and frequent reports.

Tourism officials also keep watch as visitation numbers make a peak of their own, said SVTA Executive Director Brian Ososky.

“The number one question that we’re asked: ‘When are the leaves going to reach a peak color?‘“ Ososky said. “We don’t really have an answer.“

Shenandoah National Park sees nearly a quarter of its annual visitors in October - more than twice the number of the next busiest month, said park spokeswoman Karen Beck-Herzog.

The western Piedmont region and central and northern Shenandoah Valley areas tend to see a peak between Oct. 15 and Oct. 25, Stenger said. To the west, the peak is earlier and to the east, later.

Judging by recent cool nights, at least one Valley leaf-watcher is anticipating a good show.

“I think we might be on tap for a beautiful fall color,“ said Mark Viette, horticulturist with Viette Nurseries in Fishersville. “It might be extended.“