5 things to watch for in today’s election

WASHINGTON — Break out the popcorn. As the election results roll in tonight, we’re in for a captivating show on television. Here are five things to watch for as John McCain and Barack Obama duke it out for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

1. KEY EARLY STATES

Virtually all the battleground states this year were in the Republican column in 2004, underscoring McCain’s challenge. Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m., will offer an early sign of the direction of the race, followed by Ohio and North Carolina at 7:30 p.m.

If McCain loses any of those states, which went for Bush in 2004, he will have a hard time winning.

At 8 p.m., polls close in Pennsylvania, the one blue state from 2004 both candidates hit Monday, the final, full day of campaigning. Though polls give Obama a significant advantage here, McCain is hoping to pull off an upset. If he doesn’t, it will signal real problems for McCain.

Other early, too-close-to-call states closing at 8 p.m. include Florida, the pivotal state from 2000 election, and Missouri, which has chosen the winner in every presidential race since 1956.

2. LONG LINES

An early indication of how long it will take to declare a winner tonight will be today’s lines at polling places.

Some watchdog groups warn that states aren’t prepared to handle a crush of new voters. The states say they are, but that voters can expect long lines as polls close.

Long lines could delay final tallies, particularly if turnout is high in Western battleground states like Colorado and New Mexico, where polls close at 9 p.m. and Nevada, where polls close at 10 p.m. (Times are Eastern.)

3. BLACK TURNOUT

Pay close attention to turnout of African-American voters in key Southern states. A bigger-than-expected tide — sparked by Obama’s candidacy — could add electoral votes from Georgia, North Carolina and other states with large black populations to the Democrat’s tally. A smaller-than-expected turnout could keep those states in the Republican camp, as in 2004.

Beyond the presidential race, GOP operatives worry that a strong showing among black voters — who trend overwhelmingly Democratic — will swing down-ticket Senate and House races in the South, helping Democrats expand their majority in Congress.

4. POLLS

National polls and surveys in key battleground states suggest Obama will win, likely by a big electoral vote margin. We’ll know tonight whether the pollsters deserve praise for their soothsaying skills or egg on their faces.

2008 has proved tougher than usual for pollsters. The expanded pool of voters, the wild card of Obama’s race and problems reaching younger voters on cell phones have made it difficult to determine exactly who will turn out and how they’ll vote.

5. MARGIN OF VICTORY

We should know the results by Wednesday morning. Whoever wins, conventional wisdom holds that a big victory equals a big mandate, making it easier to get things done.

While that’s not always the case, the new president’s effectiveness will be influenced by the results of congressional races throughout the country. Democrats are expected to pick up seats in both the House and the Senate. The question is how many.

Obama may find it easier to push his agenda through an expanded Democratic Congress, while McCain would likely be forced to make more concessions.