Poll: Lead widens for McDonnell

RICHMOND — Republican Bob McDonnell appears poised to win the governorship and lead a GOP sweep Tuesday, ending nearly a decade of reverses for his party, according to a Mason-Dixon poll.

McDonnell is favored by 53 percent, while Democrat Creigh Deeds is preferred by 41 percent — a widened lead from an early October survey. Six percent are undecided in the latest poll.

McDonnell’s comfortable lead, along with those of his running mates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, points to a dramatic comeback for Republicans that could include a heftier majority in the House of Delegates.

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is ahead of Jody Wagner by 13 percentage points. For attorney general, Republican Ken Cuccinelli is up 14 percentage points over Steve Shannon.

Poll results by region

Q. If the 2009 election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Creigh Deeds, the Democrat, or Bob McDonnell, the Republican?

State: McDonnell 53%, Deeds 41%, undecided 6%

• Northern Virginia: McDonnell 45%, Deeds 50%, undecided 5%
• Shenandoah/Piedmont: McDonnell 67%, Deeds 29%, undecided 4%
• Richmond Metro: McDonnell 53%, Deeds 37%, undecided 10%
• Hampton Roads: McDonnell 51%, Deeds 43%, undecided 6%
• Lynchburg/Southside: McDonnell 58%, Deeds 37%, undecided 5%
• Roanoke/Southwest: McDonnell 52%, Deeds 40%, undecided 8%

* Margin of error +/-4

 

The Mason-Dixon poll is paid for by newspapers around the state, including The News & Advance.

In the Lynchburg/Southside region, 58 percent favored McDonnell and 37 percent went for Deeds, with 5 percent undecided, according to the poll. In the Roanoke/Southwest region, 52 percent favored McDonnell, 40 percent went for Deeds, and 8 percent were undecided.

McDonnell could become the first Republican elected governor since Jim Gilmore in 1997. Since 2001, Democrats have twice won the governorship, taken back two U.S. Senate seats, seized a majority in the U.S. House delegation and control of the Virginia Senate.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. conducted the poll this past Wednesday and Thursday. The results, based on interviews with 625 registered voters likely to cast ballots Tuesday, could vary 4 percentage points in either direction.

The poll shows McDonnell, having suffered little or no damage from Deeds’ focus on his controversial law-school thesis, is ahead in all regions of the state and competitive in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia.

Further, McDonnell is statistically tied with Deeds among women, a traditional bulwark for Democrats. Deeds has tried to invigorate female voters by spotlighting portions of the thesis in which McDonnell, among other things, criticized working women as a threat to families. McDonnell now disavows such views.

Deeds’ attacks on McDonnell apparently have backfired, with the Democrat’s unfavorable rating, at 42 percent, exceeding his favorable score. McDonnell has a 51 percent favorable rating.

The poll suggests that Deeds might not have been helped by President Barack Obama’s visit to Norfolk a week before the election.

The appearance, which roughly coincided with the poll, was intended to drive up support for Deeds among Obama’s key constituents, including African-Americans. However, the poll shows that black support for Deeds, at 82 percent, is virtually unchanged from early October. Deeds also is slipping in Hampton Roads, site of the Obama visit.

Possibly eroding the benefits for Deeds of the Obama visit: the president’s diminished standing in Virginia. Obama carried the state last year, in part by boosting turnout among blacks and young people — voters Deeds hopes to harness.

Obama is the first Democrat to win Virginia for the presidency in 44 years — a distinction that has transformed the governor’s race into what some see as a referendum on the young administration in Washington.

In poll, Virginians are now evenly split in their perceptions of Obama, who won Virginia with 53 percent of the vote. Forty-three percent of respondents say they have a favorable view of Obama, while 43 percent rate him unfavorably. His negative rating in Virginia is at an all-time high.

• Schapiro is a staff writer for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.