Going Negative Always Wins, Right? Maybe Not

Might 2009 be the year voters get their fill of negative campaign ads and negative campaigns in general and say “Enough is enough”?

It’s looking that way.

The two biggest elections in the year following a presidential contest are the races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey. As a result of the calendar, the national media and the national political parties zero in on the two contests, for lack of any other horse race to cover.

This year, the spotlight is especially glaring in the Old Dominion and the Garden State as the two races are being portrayed as an early referendum on the presidency of Barack Obama.

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Democrat Jon S. Corzine, seeking a second term running the show in New Jersey, faces opposition from Republican Christopher J. Christie, a former federal prosecutor. In Virginia, we all know Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds are staging a rematch of their 2005 race for attorney general, except this time for the top job.

Negative, dirty, non-issue campaigning has been the hallmark of both races, especially by Deeds in Virginia. But the Corzine camp in Jersey is trying hard to wrest the mantle of negativity from him.

Just consider a story about the race that ran in the New York Times last week.

It focuses on a Corzine television ad that began running recently. The opening scene, played in super slow motion, shows Christie emerging from an SUV at a campaign event with a voiceover announcer asking if the GOP standardbearer “threw his weight around” to beat a couple of traffic tickets.

Harmless, you might say, until you realize that Christie is, well, plus-sized ... very plus-sized.

He’s battled obesity and the related health problems since high school, losing double-digit poundage only to gain it back and then some again and again.

Corzine, meanwhile, very publicly goes on one run after another across the state, in a not-so-transparent attempt to draw attention to his athleticism and physique, and by association, his opponent’s, well, girth.

What’s Corzine’s message here? That people whose protruding bellies block a view of their shoes are unfit for public office? That only fit, trim, “attractive” folks should be in leadership positions? That chubby folks — obviously they can’t make good choices about their own lifestyles — can’t be trusted to make good choices as public servants?

Though Corzine, a super-wealthy former U.S. senator and retired Goldman-Sachs executive, denied it all to the Times reporter, it was with a wink-wink and a nudge-nudge approach.

Ah, thank the good lord, we’re not New Jersey, you’re probably thinking right.

Well ... wrong!

Deeds, the upset winner of the Democrats’ June primary, has been struggling ever since, lagging in every single poll taken during the race.

He’s refused to flesh out any of his positions on any of the major issues in the race: transportation, education, economic development. His prefered approach has been to sell his folksy style and, since August, trash his GOP opponent at every chance.

From McDonnell’s infamous 20-year-old grad school thesis to the outright lies and distortions in TV ads blaming the Republican for higher electricity bills, Deeds and his hired campaign staff, arguably, have reached new lows for campaign negativity in Virginia.

His campaign has all been about scaring voters into supporting his candidacy, while giving them few substantive reasons upon which to base that support. It’s all been about fear.

For a couple of weeks, the fear strategy appeared to be working, as polls showed Deeds narrowing the gap with McDonnell. In the latest poll by The Washington Post, however, that appears to be ancient history now.

According to the Post last week, McDonnell has expanded his lead over Deeds, with 53 percent of likely voters expressing support for him versus 44 percent for Deeds. Surprisingly, the greatest movement in the poll numbers is coming in the suburbs of Northern Virginia, the very area Deeds has been targetting with his character-smearing ads of McDonnell.

Could it be that voters are finally sick enough of negative, non-issue-based campaigning to punish the transgressor on Election Day? Come Nov. 3, we’ll find out if the electorate truly wants clean campaigns or if, as in the past, negativity ultimately works.