Virginia’s Hispanics have clout in election

Elsa Barrientos of Richmond can’t wait for her vote to be counted.

The 56-year-old hospital worker, born in Bolivia, became a U.S. citizen this summer. So when someone with the Virginia Hispanic Chamber of Commerce asked if she wanted to register to vote in the upcoming presidential election, she jumped at the chance.

“That’s why I am so excited,“ Barrientos said. “We have to make changes in this country.“

For Barrientos and other Hispanics, change means improvements in U.S. immigration laws that will make it easier for family members to obtain legal residency. It also means changes to bolster the sagging U.S. economy and provide more opportunities for its newest arrivals.

In a tight election, many activists believe a candidate who can capture the majority of the Hispanic vote could help swing battleground states such as Virginia.

In Virginia, roughly 149,000 Hispanics are citizens of voting age, making up nearly 3 percent of the state’s eligible voters. That makes it the 28th-largest Hispanic voter population in the U.S., according to the Pew Hispanic Center. By comparison, there are 180,000 eligible Asian voters and 1.1 million eligible black voters in the state.

Spurred by immigration issues and the momentum generated by a history-making election, Hispanic organizations expect an increase in turnout this fall among Hispanic voters.

Nationally, the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at the University of Southern California expects 9 million Hispanics to vote in the general election, an 18 percent jump from the 7.6 million who voted in 2004.

“Any candidate that doesn’t have an outreach plan for Latinos is [crazy],“ said Mauricio Vivero, executive director of Ayuda, a nonprofit group of Latino businesses in Northern Virginia that advocates involvement in the political and legislative process.

“In some states, it matters more — New Mexico and Colorado and Nevada and in Virginia, you’ve got to have a plan. You want to start building relationships with those communities.“

There’s plenty at stake in Virginia’s tight presidential race.

In an Aug. 20-22 survey of likely Virginia voters by Public Policy Polling, Sen. Barack Obama led Sen. John McCain 47 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error.

But among the category marked “Hispanics/others,“ the gap widened. Obama garnered 51 percent to McCain’s 34 percent, with 15 percent of respondents undecided.

In Virginia, both parties are taking the Hispanic vote seriously. Republicans and Democrats sponsored booths at this weekend’s ¿Que Pasa? festival in Richmond. GOP Latino organizers plan to bring in McCain’s younger brother, Joe, for a stop in the next couple of weeks.

“I think we’re seeing a lot of excitement and a lot of people wanting to be engaged in the election process,“ said Michel Zajur of the Hispanic Chamber, which sponsors the festival.

Nationally, polls show Obama drawing roughly six out of every 10 Hispanic votes. In 2004, President Bush won four out of every 10 Hispanic votes, according to exit polls.

“There’s pretty much a consensus that the majority of Latinos will go Democratic, but that’s not the real issue,“ said Harry Pachon, director of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute. “The real issue is how Democratic will it go and how many inroads the Republicans can make.“

Securing a difference-making chunk of the Hispanic vote in Virginia presents a number of challenges.

“Virginia’s Hispanic population is a multiethnic community — a strong Cuban presence, Salvadoran presence and a growing Mexican immigrant population,“ Pachon said.

That means that appealing to Hispanic voters across the board might not be as easy as in states with a less diverse Hispanic population.

“You’re talking about a dozen countries, different languages,“ Vivero said. “It’s a tricky business. You’ve got to know who your audience is. It’s not just saying ‘buenas noches’ at a fundraiser.“

Hispanic community leaders say debate this year and last year over proposed crackdowns on the ability of illegal immigrants to work or attend college in Virginia have energized Hispanic voters and could bring them to the polls in greater numbers.

“There has been so much immigrant bashing over the last six to eight years in Virginia that Latinos are going to come out and look at the candidates that are expressing respect to the community for the hard work it’s doing and contributing to the economy,“ said Andres Tobar, chairman of the Virginia Coalition of Latino Organizations.

Others say Hispanic voters, in Virginia and throughout the country, will break toward the candidates who reach out on the same meat-and-potatoes issues upon which other groups make their choices.

“It’s not just on immigration, but education, the economy, even the war in Iraq,“ said Pachon, noting that 14 percent of all Marines in Iraq are of Hispanic origin.

Some are unconvinced that Virginia’s Hispanic voters will ultimately have a pronounced impact in November.

“I can’t remember the last time I heard McCain or Obama talk about [illegal] immigration,“ said Quentin Kidd, an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University

Kidd added that McCain and Obama have similar views on the issue. Both favor tighter border security but have endorsed a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

He said the impact of an increased turnout by Hispanic voters could get diluted by much larger anticipated increases among black voters and young voters.

Hispanic voters’ most significant impact in Virginia could come later, according to Kidd, when an energized Latino voting population could have a greater effect on races for the Virginia General Assembly.

With this year’s election about seven weeks away, however, Virginia activists and organizers say recent history points to the importance of increasing registration and maximizing turnout among Hispanic voters such as Elsa Barrientos.

In Virginia’s most recent U.S. Senate race, “Jim Webb beat [then-Sen. George] Allen by less than 10,000 votes in 2006,“ Vivero said.

“So, obviously, if there were another 20, 30, 40,000 votes, it could certainly make a difference in all sorts of races.“