What does GOP sweep mean for 5th District in 2010?

Political pundits looking beyond the state’s GOP sweep warn that Rep. Tom Perriello, D-5th District is on shaky ground in 2010 because the district’s constituents are unhappy with national policies.

In 2008, Virginia’s 5th Congressional District supported Democrats Mark Warner for Senate and Perriello while at the same time voting for Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain.

Also last year, the much smaller 14th state House of Delegates district supported President Barack Obama and Warner.

On Tuesday, both districts turned red, voting for the straight Republican ticket, and the 14th District reelected its Republican incumbent, Delegate Danny Marshall. Perriello currently faces seven challengers.

“I’ve seen (the 5th) District described by some folks as trending Democratic,” said Andy Sere, regional spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “I think (Tuesday) night should put a rest to that. This is a conservative district and (Tuesday’s) gubernatorial results proved that ... which I think should be most troubling to Tom Perriello.”

Sere criticized Perriello’s support of national policies, saying he was “out of touch” with the 5th District constituents.

“I think that (Tuesday) night’s results were obviously very welcome news for state Republicans,” Sere said, “but for our perspective, we see (those) results as a premonition of what could very well happen to Tom Perriello next year.”

Fred Hudson, chairman of the 5th District Democratic Committee, expects the key issues of jobs and health care — which he said McDonnell’s campaign ran so heavily on — will not play as large a role come 2010.

“I believe that those will either be moderated or resolved by the time a year goes by and they will have little or no effect or hangover consequences to Tom Perriello’s race,” Hudson said.

Other political experts credit this year’s shift to a lack of Democratic voter turnout rather than a change of heart for Obama and Perriello. Isaac Wood, communications director for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, described the 5th District as a “microcosm of elections in Virginia” that depends heavily on voter turnout.

“I’m not convinced there was this great mass of Obama voters that switched to McDonnell,” Wood said. “I think they stayed home.”

Wood said “the most shocking shift” from Tuesday’s statewide election was the majority by which McDonnell won the city of Danville — 8 percent — compared to Perriello’s margin of 16 percent.

“That’s a 24-percent swing,” Wood said. “I think that that’s really gonna tell the story of the 2010 election if Perriello can pull some big numbers in Danville — if he will have a shot. If things look like they did in 2009, it’s hard to see where he’s gonna pick up extra votes in the rest of the district.”

Charlottesville-based political blogger and Democratic party activist Waldo Jaquith described the 5th District as a “real centrist district,” where he said Perriello has become a good fit. For Republicans to remain successful, they will have to continue to campaign here as moderates, he said.

“I think the lesson is pretty clear for Virginia Republicans,” Jaquith said. “They win when they campaign around the center.”