LIBERTY BLOG: Final-week scenarios

Hey gang,

And we’re .... back!

Two hours before tipoff of tonight’s crucial Liberty-VMI contest at the Vines Center. Winner seals the second seed in the upcoming Big South tournament. Since the tournament moved to its current home-site format in the 2002-03 season, the No. 3 seed is an astounding 1-6 in first-round games. So getting to No. 2 is a big deal.

First the schedule:

Tonight—VMI at Liberty; Charleston Southern at Winthrop

Wednesday—Presbyterian at Gardner-Webb; High Point at Radford

Thursday—Coastal Carolina at Charleston Southern

Saturday—Liberty at Radford; Charleston Southern at Gardner-Webb; Coastal Carolina at Winthrop; UNC Asheville at Presbyterian; VMI at High Point

Here’s how the standings shake out:

1. Radford (14-2)—has clinched No. 1 seed

t2. VMI (11-5)—clinches No. 2 seed with a win tonight at Liberty, is No. 3 seed with a loss. VMI wins a tiebreaker with UNC Asheville because VMI beat Radford, and Radford swept UNCA.

t2. Liberty (11-5)—clinches No. 2 seed with a win tonight against VMI. If Liberty loses, the Flames will clinch the No. 3 seed with a win at Radford Saturday. If Liberty loses both games, it can still be the No. 3 if UNC Asheville loses Saturday at Presbyterian. If UNCA beats PC and Liberty loses twice, UNCA needs Gardner-Webb or Presbyterian to finish ahead of Winthrop in the conference standings to win a tiebreaker. If Winthrop finishes ahead of both, Liberty wins the tiebreaker with UNCA.

4. UNC Asheville (10-7)—see above. The Bulldogs can finish no worse than fourth.

t5. Gardner-Webb (7-9)—The Bulldogs will clinch the No. 5 seed with two victories this week because they win any tiebreaker with Winthrop thanks to their win over Radford in December. GWU can finish no worse than sixth, because it swept Coastal Carolina.

t5. Winthrop (7-9)—Winthrop is the No. 5 with two wins and a Gardner-Webb loss this week. If Winthrop and Gardner-Webb both win out, GWU is the 5, Winthrop the 6. If Winthrop loses twice and Coastal Carolina beats Charleston Southern Thursday, Winthrop falls to the seven and Coastal jumps up to the No. 6 seed. GWU would be the 5. If Winthrop loses twice and Coastal loses to CSU Thursday, Winthrop is the No. 6 seed.

7. Coastal Carolina (5-11)
8. High Point (4-12)
9. Charleston Southern (3-12)

I’ve lumped these three together because they’re essentially fighting for the last two spots. Coastal clinches a spot with one victory because it would win a tiebreaker with High Point thanks to a season sweep, and the Chants could finish as high as the No. 7 seed. None of these teams have an easy road. CCU plays two road games. High Point gets Radford and VMI, two of the league’s top three teams. CSU plays three games in six days. Getting the No. 2 seed is important because you’d rather play one of these three than play Winthrop or Gardner-Webb. Winthrop is starting to figure things out offensively. Add in the Eagles’ defensive prowess and they become a dangerous matchup. Gardner-Webb has the shooters to knock off anyone on the road. Liberty and VMI would much rather roll the dice with one of the bottom three times than those two.

Couple of other notes before heading off to the arena ...

* I’d be stunned if G Jesse Sanders plays tonight. I’ve heard from a few people that he’s still gimpy on the injured right ankle. I don’t think Liberty coach Ritchie McKay wants to rush Sanders back only to have him injure the ankle again.

* Liberty does miss Sanders, no doubt. Johnny Stephene, who plays a lot of point when Sanders is out, is a good baseline-to-baseline player and has tremendous speed, but Saturday at Old Dominion, he really struggled to control the middle the way Sanders does. That’s not as big of a deal against VMI, sinch so much offense comes off the press break rather than half-court sets.

* VMI hasn’t hit its season scoring average of 94.7 points in any of its last five games. The Keydets aren’t shooting well, and they don’t defend anyone. Teams are shooting 51.6 percent against the Keydets this season. You can create as many turnovers as you want, but when you’re conceding that sort of field-goal percentage, it’s difficult to consistently win ball games.

* Radford outrebounded VMI 65-26 Saturday.

65-26

That’s a large discrepancy right there.

That’s all for now. I’ll update later if I get any concrete word on Sanders’ status.

EDIT: No Sanders. He’s not dressed, but he’s not wearing the boot any more either.