LIBERTY REPORT: Week 7 picks

I seem to lose five picks every week. Now that’s a trend! Though I did go 4-0 in Big South picks last week. Anyway, on to this week’s picks:

Last week’s record: 13-5
Season record: 103-27 (.792)

BIG SOUTH

Saturday’s games

Coastal Carolina at VMI: This has been an interesting series, as the games are always tighter than most would expect. There’s a temptation to go with VMI here, but the Keydets are ranked 99th or worse nationally in every defensive category. Coastal showed great offensive efficiency last week against Liberty, and quarterback Zach MacDowall seems to be getting better and better every week. Coastal’s weakness is in the secondary, and that’s fine, because VMI doesn’t throw the ball. Coastal Carolina 41, VMI 35

Noth Carolina Central at Presbyterian: Both teams have played similarly difficult schedules and will welcome the chance to get back on equal footing. Presbyterian continues to play tough at home, but the Blue Hose just haven’t been dominant offensively. Still, they win here. Presbyterian 24, NCCU 14

Charleston Southern at Savannah State: The Tigers have been better this year, but getting blown out by a bad Howard team does little to inspire confidence for me. CSU wins comfortably. CSU 31, Savannah State 14

Stony Brook at No. 14 Liberty: Stony Brook is big and physical, but a redshirt freshman quarterback with a 42.9 completion percentage isn’t coming into Lynchburg and leading his team to a victory. Liberty 52, Stony Brook 14

Gardner-Webb at Georgia Tech: The Runnin’ Bulldogs are 50-point underdogs. They’ll cover, but they won’t compete here. Georgia Tech 48, Gardner-Webb 7

FCS TOP 25

No. 1 James Madison at No. 7 Richmond: Game of the week in FCS and the game of the year in the CAA South. Of course if JMU wins, then the game of the year becomes JMU-Villanova. This has been an odd series, as the road team has won the last four meetings. Each team has an outstanding win this year. JMU rallied from down 21-0 to beat App State at home; Richmond handed Elon its only loss and held the Phoenix to 10 points at home. My guess: JMU QB Rodney Landers makes one key big play that swings the momentum, and JMU squeaks out with a victory. JMU 24, Richmond 20

No. 2 Appalachian State at Samford: The Bulldogs have been a nice story in their first SoCon season, but they won’t challenge App. App State 38, Samford 14

Texas State at No. 3 McNeese State: Cowboys manned up and picked up a huge road win in South Dakota last week. They won’t struggle against a Texas State team that lost to Southern Utah at home. McNeese State 41, Texas State 16

William & Mary at No. 4 New Hampshire: Yeah, yeah. History, history. W&M has won five straight against the Wildcats, including two straight in Durham. I picked the Tribe last week and they fell behind 35-0 against Villanova. Not making that mistake again. UNH 31, W&M 17

Illinois State at No. 8 Northern Iowa: Panthers keep rolling at home. NIU 30, Illinois State 20

No. 9 Elon at No. 25 The Citadel: Yeah, yeah. History, history. El Cid has won six of the seven series meetings and all five in Charleston. At some point, though, you say to heck with history and pick the better team. And that’s Elon. Elon 31, The Citadel 27

No. 10 Montana at Eastern Washington: The Eagles are playing for their playoff lives against a Montana team that took a heck of a punch at Weber State last week. Eastern Washington 41, Montana 38

Chattanooga at No. 11 Wofford: Chattanooga has one winning season since 1997. Wofford 38, Chattanooga 6

Western Carolina at No. 12 Furman: Furman is on the rebound after the Elon loss. WCU’s growing pains continue. Furman 37, Western Carolina 17

No. 13 Massachusetts at Northeastern: The Minutemen learned how to play defense last week. UMass 38, Northeastern 24

No. 22 Western Illinois at No. 15 North Dakota State: I think Western Illinois is ranked solely on playing Arkansas tough. I’ve watched Arkansas play. Arkansas stinks. North Dakota State 40, Western Illinois 21

No. 16 Weber State at Montana State: Three times since 2002, the Big Sky has had a three-way tie for first at 5-2. Seems like we’re headed down that road again. MSU 31, Weber State 28

No. 23 Sam Houston State at No. 17 Central Arkansas: Sam Houston State is ranked 115th in the nation out of 118 teams in pass defense. Oh yeah, Central Arkansas QB Nate Brown is a legit pro prospect who has thrown for 1,458 yards, 14 TDs and no INTs this year. UCA 44, Sam Houston State 31

Portland State at No. 19 Northern Arizona: Jerry Glanville brings his sea-level Vikings to NAU’s Skydome, which sits at 7,000 feet. NAU’s defense is sneaky good. NAU 40, Portland State 17

Indiana State at No. 20 Southern Illinois: Salukis would get tougher competition on a bye week. SIU 54, Indiana State 6

Maine at No. 21 Delaware: Every week is a must-win now for the Blue Hens. Delaware 17, Maine 10

No. 24 Jacksonville State at Eastern Kentucky: Just a hunch that the Colonels will derail the Ryan Perriloux train this week. EKU 27, Jacksonville State 24