LIBERTY REPORT: Week 9 picks

Really, I’m going to make better picks this week. Can’t have the ol’ percentage dip below .750. Early picks this week due to the weekly OVC Thursday night showdown.

Last week’s record: 17-7
Season record: 135-41 (.767)

BIG SOUTH

Saturday’s games

VMI at Gardner-Webb: Much has been made of GW’s ability to stop opposing tailback. The problem with that theory is that save for Georgia Tech, hardly anyone has tried to run on Gardner-Webb. Sam Houston State and Charleston Southern both operate pass-heavy offenses, as does Tusculum. VMI will run for at least 200 yards on the Bulldogs, if not 300. Still, GWU is on a bit of a roll, and I’m not sure VMI is ready to win on the road in the Big South just yet. This will be entertaining until the end, though. Gardner-Webb 45, VMI 42

Charleston Southern at No. 22 Liberty: Charleston Southern people can spin the loss to Stony Brook any way they want. But having just seen the Seawolves lay a massive egg in Lynchburg two weeks ago, I can’t believe any team that can’t beat Stony Brook can come into Williams Stadium and win. CSU will get its passing yards, but this game won’t ever be in question for the Flames. Liberty 42, Charleston Southern 20

Stony Brook at Coastal Carolina: Both teams are playing for pride, and some of the Chanticleers’ defensive coaches may be coaching for their jobs. Stony Brook is only 2-5 because Charleston Southern couldn’t kick extra points. CSU missed two last week in a one-point loss at SBU. Coastal Carolina 23, Stony Brook 14

FCS TOP 25

Thursday’s game

Jacksonville State at No. 24 Tennessee-Martin: This OVC showdown can be seen on ESPNU. Martin’s only real playoff hope is to snap up the OVC’s auto bid, as the Skyhawks’ non-conference resume is not good—two non-counters, two FBS schools. This game features two of the league’s better QBs in UTM’s Cade Thompson and JSU’s Ryan Perriloux. But Martin’s run game will be enough to put the Skyhawks over the top. UT Martin 38, Jacksonville State 34

Saturday’s games

No. 1 James Madison at No. 3 Villanova: CAA South title on the line here, and if JMU wins, the Dukes will be in great position to run the table and earn the No. 1 seed for the playoffs. The forecast is for rain, which might slow the passing attacks of both teams. I’ll give the edge to the Dukes, who have the FCS’ most dynamic dual-threat QB in Rodney Landers. Yes, even more dynamic than Armanti Edwards. JMU 20, Villanova 17

No. 17 Furman at No. 2 Appalachian State: Coming off the scare the Georgia Southern, App State should be locked and loaded for a huge two-game stretch featuring games against Furman and Wofford. I keep hearing talk about Furman being criminally underrated, but I just don’t see it. The best wins came against teams that have proven to be not so good (The Citadel, Delaware). Furman hangs, but App is too good. App State 44, Furman 31

Southern Utah at No. 4 Cal Poly: SUU used to be a punching bag at this level, but the Thunderbirds have beaten Youngstown State and Texas State and have played Northern Arizona tough. Still, going into San Luis Obispo and winning is too much to ask. Cal Poly 30, Southern Utah 13

No. 8 Wofford at No. 5 Elon: If the Phoenix win here, the only thing standing between them and the SoCon title is a win in Boone in a few weeks. (Sorry, Western Carolina, you’re not going to Rhodes and winning.) Wofford’s run game has been in high gear of late, but the opponents haven’t exactly been stout—Western Carolina and Chattanooga. This just seems to be Elon’s year. Elon 38, Wofford 35

No. 6 Montana at Northern Colorado: I’ve never seen a team that was blown out as thoroughly as UNC was last week at Weber State only lose by seven points. Griz are on a mission. Montana 41, Northern Colorado 17

No. 7 Northern Iowa at Youngstown State: The people in Youngstown don’t tolerate 3-9 seasons, but that’s exactly where the Penguins are headed. Jon Heacock’s job may be in jeopardy. UNI 31, Youngstown State 7

Towson at No. 9 New Hampshire: Tigers aren’t scaring anyone. UNH 38, Towson 10

Georgetown at No. 10 Richmond: Maybe if Allen Iverson had some football eligibility left ... Richmond 41, Georgetown 7

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 11 Central Arkansas: UCA is this year’s North Dakota State—one of the best teams in FCS, but ineligible for the playoffs. Central Arkansas 41, Southeastern Louisiana 31

No. 12 Weber State at No. 14 Northern Arizona: This is NAU’s best team since the 2003 group beat McNeese State in the playoffs before losing to Florida Atlantic. The Lumberjacks secondary will have to find a way to do something no one else has done—slow Weber State quarterback Cameron Higgins (68.6 percent completion rate, 2,551 yards, 25 TDs). Weber at least tries to run the ball, which will test the Jacks’ stout run defense. The winner has the inside track on the Big Sky regular-season title. Weber has already beaten Montana; NAU plays in Missoula next week. NAU 35, Weber State 30

Nicholls State at No. 13 McNeese State: Tough year for the Colonels, who have only played four games thus far due to hurricanes. McNeese keeps its playoff hopes alive. McNeese State 34, Nicholls State 14

No. 16 Southern Illinois at Missouri State: With a win over Northern Iowa in hand, SIU has the best shot of running the table and winning the MoValley’s auto bid. SIU 27, Missouri State 13

Bryant at No. 18 Massachusetts: Minutemen take out frustration from loss to Richmond out on DI newbies. UMass 41, Bryant 10

Rhode Island at No. 19 William & Mary: OK I GET IT. WILLIAM & MARY IS AWESOME. I WILL NEVER PICK AGAINST THE TRIBE AGAIN. William & Mary 138, Rhode Island -13 (er ... W&M 37, Rhody 10)

No. 20 Harvard at Princeton: Crimson offense too much for Tigers. Harvard 28, Princeton 20

No. 21 Lafayette at Fordham: Not sure who the Leopards are going to trot out there at tailback, but as long as Andy Romans is healthy, they look like the team to beat in the Patriot. Lafayette 24, Fordham 16

No. 23 Tennessee State at Southeast Missouri State: Tigers in the driver seat in the OVC, but they can’t afford a slip-up here. Tennessee State 27, SEMO 24

No. 25 Hampton at South Carolina State: Is this the year? SCSU has this game circled on its calendar every year, and the Pirates always seem to get the best of the Bulldogs. Not this time. SC State 31, Hampton 27