LIBERTY REPORT: Weekly watch

With Liberty’s football team off to a 5-0 start, the “P” word is starting to enter a lot of conversations. And by “P,“ I mean playoffs, of course. With the “bridge” automatic qualifier a moot point this season for Big South teams, the Flames’ only hope for a spot in the 16-team FCS playoff field is to gain an at-large bid.

Right now, the three playoff prognostications I have seen have Liberty on the outside looking in. That really doesn’t surprise me, because Liberty has played two Division II games and is battling against—at this point at least—three or four teams each from established, auto-bid conferences.

But now is a good time for fans of Liberty football to start paying attention to what’s going on in other leagues, as there will be several games per week that will be key to Liberty’s playoff chances.

First off, the Flames will have to win every game between now and the Nov. 22 game against Elon. LU will be a heavy favorite in each one of those games and a loss in any of them would pretty much eliminate the Flames from the conversation. Secondly, a lot of teams from the auto-bid leagues are going to struggle to meet the seven-Division I win requirement to earn a spot in the postseason.

On anygivensaturday.com, a message board devoted to fans of FCS football, poster FargoBison has compiled a list of what teams need to do to achieve the seven-win minimum. The thread can be read here.

Each week, there will be elimination games of sorts, as teams watch their hopes to get to seven DI wins evaporate. Eight games Liberty fans should be interested in this week:

* Montana at Eastern Washington: The Eagles have to win the rest of their games to reach the seven-win mark, since they opened with losses to two FBS teams and then beat DII Western Washington. Liberty fans should probably root for Montana, coming off a tough loss at Weber State, to put Eastern out of its misery. There’s an outside chance Eastern could still win the Big Sky’s auto bid with a loss, but it would be unlikely since the Eagles would already have two conference losses.

* Portland State at Northern Arizona: The Lumberjacks look like one of the Big Sky’s faves, and if they can hold serve at home, Portland State’s seven-win hopes will be done.

* Eastern Illinois at Tenn.-Martin: A loss would drop EIU to 2-4, and though the Panthers could still get to seven DI wins, they would have to win out and beat Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee State on the road to get there. EIU’s at-large profile is much better than UTM’s, so LU fans should hope the Panthers lose.

* UMass at Northeastern: UMass will be a heavy favorite here, but a Northeastern upset would put the Minutemen in a very precarious at-large spot—3-3 with games against Richmond and New Hampshire left.

* Elon at The Citadel: An Elon win not only makes the Flames’ out of conference schedule look better, but it essentially eliminates El Cid, since it would have to win out. The rest of the schedule includes games at Appalachian State and Florida.

* Weber State at Montana State: Weber has road games left with MSU and Northern Arizona, and it can only lose one of them and still make it to seven DI wins. LU fans should root for Montana State here.

* Western Illinois at North Dakota State: WIU needs to win five of six to get to seven DI wins, and it plays NDSU and Southern Illinois on the road. The Bison are likely to get to seven regardless, so a Western Illinois loss would help LU’s cause.

* Sam Houston State at Central Arkansas: LU fans should definitely load up on the Central Arkansas bandwagon. The Bears are still transitioning to DI and are ineligible for the postseason. Sam Houston needs six DI wins in its last seven games, and if it loses here, it has to win out (including a win over McNeese State) to get there. If UCA wins here, the chances of a Southland sending a second team to the tournament are dim.