New FCS Top 25, FCS playoff bracket projection

1. JAMES MADISON (8-1)
Last week: Idle
The scoop: A win against the Tribe clinches the CAA auto bid.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. No. 12 William & Mary (7-2)

2. APPALACHIAN STATE (8-2)
Last week: beat Chattanooga, 49-7
The scoop: Mountaineers have won seven straight since the loss at JMU.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. No. 10 Elon (8-2).

3. WEBER STATE (9-2)
Last week: beat Idaho State, 59-27
The scoop: QB Cameron Higgins -- 3,496 yards, 33 TDs.
Next up: Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Washington (4-5).

4. MONTANA (9-1)
Last week: beat Portland State, 29-12
The scoop: Yikes. Game against Bengals Saturday could be a name-your-score sort of deal.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. Idaho State (0-10).

5. VILLANOVA (7-2)
Last week: beat No. 8 New Hampshire, 24-13
The scoop: Win in battle of Wildcats gives ‘Nova some playoff breathing room. They’ll be even if they slip up once in the final two weeks.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. Towson (3-7).

6. CAL POLY (7-1)
Last week: beat North Carolina Central, 49-3
The scoop: Can wrap up playoff berth Saturday against Davis. Those Cal Poly fans who think a win at Wisconsin is a 50-50 deal should be reminded that the FCS is 2-81 against FBS teams this year, though Cal Poly has one of those two wins.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. UC Davis (5-5).

7. NORTHERN IOWA (8-2)
Last week: beat Missouri State, 42-0
The scoop: Panthers will be rooting for South Dakota State to upset SIU.
Next up: Nov. 15 at Indiana State (0-10).

8. RICHMOND (7-3)
Last week: beat Hofstra, 34-14
The scoop: The work’s almost done for UR … now don’t slip up against Delaware and ruin the showdown with William & Mary.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. Delaware (4-6).

9. WOFFORD (7-2)
Last week: beat The Citadel, 33-28
The scoop: The game at Samford Saturday, as the rest of the SoCon has found out, will be a tricky one.
Next up: Nov. 15 at Samford (5-4).

10. ELON (8-2)
Last week: beat Western Carolina, 33-14
The scoop: Not exactly an easy end to the season for Pete Lembo’s troops -- at App State, at Liberty.
Next up: Nov. 15 at No. 2 Appalachian State (8-2).

11. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (7-2)
Last week: beat No. 17 Western Illinois, 24-14
The scoop: Two wins, and the auto bid is SIU’s. One loss, and SIU’s playoff hopes are in peril. Fine line.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. South Dakota State (6-4).

12. WILLIAM & MARY (7-2)
Last week: beat William & Mary, 38-17
The scoop: Gaudy record mostly the result of soft schedule. We’ll know if the Tribe is for real Saturday.
Next week: Nov. 15 at No. 1 James Madison (8-1).

13. NEW HAMPSHIRE (7-2)
Last week: lost to No. 4 Villanova, 24-13
The scoop: UNH will not be a playoff lock at 8-3.
Next up: Nov. 15 at No. 21 Massachusetts (6-4).

14. FURMAN (7-3)
Last week: Idle
The scoop: Georgia Southern a dangerous home opponent.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. Georgia Southern (5-5).

15. CENTRAL ARKANSAS (7-2)
Last week: beat No. 23 Northwestern State, 42-6
The scoop: Win out, and the Southland title belongs to the playoff-ineligible Bears.
Next up: Nov. 15 at Stephen F. Austin (4-6).

16. MAINE (7-3)
Last week: beat No. 13 Massachusetts, 21-20
The scoop: Bears have the inside track to the CAA North title now.
Next week: Nov. 15 at Rhode Island (2-8).

17. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE (8-2)
Last week: beat Howard, 56-0
The scoop: SCSU could be a dangerous first-round playoff opponent.
Next up: Nov. 15 at Morgan State (6-4).

18. HARVARD (7-1)
Last week: beat Columbia, 42-28
The scoop: Now in a three-way tie in Ivy at 5-1 with Brown, Penn.
Next up: Nov. 15 at Pennsylvania (5-3).

19. TENNESSEE-MARTIN (7-3)
Last week: lost to Auburn, 37-20
The scoop: Skyhawks were tied 20-all with Auburn in the third quarter.
Next up: Nov. 15 at Southeast Missouri State (3-7).

20. COLGATE (8-2)
Last week: beat Lehigh, 34-33
The scoop: Rallied from 12 points down to stun Lehigh.
Next up: Nov. 22 vs. Holy Cross (6-3).

21. MASSACHUSETTS (6-4)
Last week: lost to Maine, 21-20
The scoop: UMass reduced to playing role of spoiler against UNH.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. No. 13 New Hampshire (7-2).

22. McNEESE STATE (6-3)
Last week: beat Stephen F. Austin, 42-31
The scoop: Cowboys final two games are road toughies -- Northwestern State and Central Arkansas.
Next up: Nov. 15 at Northwestern State (6-4).

23. LAFAYETTE (7-2)
Last week: beat Bucknell, 38-21
The scoop: The Leopards can throw the Patriot League into chaos if they beat Holy Cross at home Saturday.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. Holy Cross (6-3).

24. TENNESEEE STATE (8-2)
Last week: beat Eastern Illinois, 45-24
The scoop: At 5-1 in OVC, Tigers would win out in three-way tie with Eastern Kentucky and Tenn.-Martin because TSU beat both.
Next week: Nov. 15 at Jacksonville State (7-3).

25. LIBERTY (8-2)
Last week: beat VMI, 38-26
The scoop: Flames become Big South’s first outright back-to-back champs since Gardner-Webb in 2002 and 2003.
Next up: Nov. 15 vs. Gardner Webb (5-5).

DROPPED OUT: No. 17 Western Illinois, No. 23 Northwestern State

ON THE RADAR (in no particular order): Holy Cross, Montana State, Bethune-Cookman, Eastern Kentucky, Albany, Dayton, Grambling, Prairie View A&M, South Dakota State.

***

Also, with two weeks left in the season, here’s a stab at projecting the 16-team FCS playoff field:

What we (think we know):

* The Big Sky is a two-bid league. Weber State has locked up the automatic bid, and unless Montana loses twice (which is ridiculously unlikely since the Griz host winless Idaho State this week), the Griz are a lock.

* The CAA seems to be set up this way: The winner of the New Hampshire at Maine game Nov. 22 will get one at-large bid. The winner of the Richmond at William & Mary game will get another at-large bid. Villanova looks like a lock unless it slips twice (vs. Towson, at Delaware). James Madison will probably win the automatic bid. William & Mary moves into lock territory if it upsets JMU Saturday in Harrisonburg.

* Cal Poly is a lock from the Great West as long as it beats UC Davis Saturday.

* South Carolina State has nearly wrapped up the MEAC’s auto-bid, and no other MEAC team has the at-large resume to be in the at-large conversation. The only way SCSU doesn’t win the bid is if it loses twice, which won’t happen because they play North Carolina A&T and N.C. A&T has given up.

* Southern Illinois claims the MVC auto bid if it wins out. The Salukis beat Northern Iowa, which barring some sort of miracle will finish at 7-1 in the league. (UNI plays woeful Indiana State this week). SIU hosts South Dakota State this week and finishes at Illinois State. SIU will be the favorite in both. South Dakota State has the potential to disrupt the entire thing, though, if it wins its final two road games (SIU, North Dakota State). That would put the Jackrabbits at 8-4 and 7-1 in the MVC and in a tie with UNI for the title. UNI wins the head-to-head and the auto bid. An 8-4 SDSU team would be close to a lock. Could Southern Illinois get in at 8-3 with a win over UNI?

* The Ohio Valley will be a one-bid league. Tennessee State can all but wrap up the auto bid by winning at Jacksonville State Saturday, but that will be a difficult task. I’m projecting a JSU win there and picking a Tennessee-Martin win over Eastern Kentucky Nov. 22, giving the bid to UTM.

* Colgate controls its destiny in the Patriot League. The Red Raiders host Holy Cross Nov. 22. Where the league gets interesting is if Lafayette beats Holy Cross Saturday and Holy Cross turns around and beats Colgate the next week. That would leave Lafayette at 5-1, Holy Cross at 5-1 and Colgate at 4-1 in league. Colgate’s game against Georgetown last month was canceled due to a norovirus outbreak on Georgetown’s campus, but Colgate would have likely won that game anyway. All three would be 1-1 against each other. Apparently, if there’s a three-way tie, the league’s athletic directors take a vote of whom to award the automatic bid to.

* The Southern is either a two- or three-bid league, but not a four-bid league. App State is close to a lock; Wofford is in that territory too, but it gets dicey if Wofford loses to Furman. Elon seems to be safe with a win in its final two games (at App, at Liberty). Furman will be tough to exclude if it wins out. The Furman-Wofford game is in Spartanburg, where Wofford tends to play pretty well. But if Furman springs the upset and Elon loses to App State, Elon might be the odd team out, even with a win at Liberty. Wofford whipped Elon at Elon.

* Trying to figure out the Southland is making my head hurt. I’m still going to project Northwestern State as the league champion, but any one of six eligible teams could still take the bid. Safe to say, though, no at-large will come from this conference.

So, the brackets:

South Carolina State (10-2) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Maine (9-3) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

Elon (9-3) at #4 Montana (11-1)
Northern Iowa (10-2) at Cal Poly (8-2)

Northwestern State (7-5) at #3 Weber State (10-2)
Colgate (9-2) at Villanova (9-2)

Tenn.-Martin (9-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (9-2) at Richmond (9-3)

I know there will be some quibbles with the second bracket, because of the NCAA’s regionalization policies, but you have to send someone out West. Wofford had to go to Montana last year for the first round, so I could see the same scenario unfolding where the third SoCon team heads out there.

I could also see a scenario where the UNI-Cal Poly game is flipped and UNI ends up hosting. Depends on the bid, I suppose.

I’d love to see a straight 1-16 seeded field, which I know will never happen. If that were the case, I’d have:

#16 South Carolina State at #1 James Madison
#9 Richmond at #8 Northern Iowa

#13 Colgate at #4 Montana
#12 Maine at #5 Villanova

#14 Tenn.-Martin at #3 Weber State
#11 Elon at #6 Cal Poly

#15 Northwestern State at #2 Appalachian State
#10 Wofford at #7 Southern Illinois

Finally …

* Watching the election coverage last week, I noticed on NBC that they kept discussing a “path of victory” for John McCain, and all the dominos that had to fall into place for the Arizona senator to get to 270 electoral votes, knowing good and well that it was a longshot. So I’ll do something similar here, a “path to the 16” for Liberty, which has clinched the Big South title and is still hoping to sneak into the field somehow. Here’s my best guess at that path:

1. Liberty beats Gardner-Webb and Elon. If LU doesn’t satisfy this requirement, there’s no need to read on.

2. Georgia Southern upsets Furman in Greenville this week, essentially eliminating the Paladins from the conversation.

3. Samford upsets Wofford in Birmingham this week, and Furman turns around and beats Wofford next week. The Terriers would be done.

4. JMU beats William & Mary Saturday in Harrisonburg. A W&M win would be a disaster for the Flames, as it would open the door to both W&M and Richmond gaining bids if the Spiders then beat the Tribe Nov. 22.

5. Southern Illinois beats South Dakota State in Carbondale Saturday, knocking the Jackrabbits completely out of the race.

6. Massachusetts rebounds and beats New Hampshire at home Saturday, dropping UNH to 7-3. Maine then beats UNH in the season finale, leaving Maine at 9-3, UNH at 7-4 and UMass at 8-4. In that case, Maine will be the only CAA North at-large bid. I don’t see any scenario (short of Rhode Island beating Maine this week, which won’t happen) where the CAA North is shut out.

In essence, Liberty is gunning for the spot currently occupied by Elon in the projection, but just beating the Phoenix won’t be enough to snag it. The Flames still need lots of help from other schools around the country. One more note, Liberty fans should NOT root for Elon to beat App State this week. If that happens, there’s no way Elon DOESN’T make the tournament, regardless of what happens in Lynchburg Nov. 22.