With two major winter storms behind us and another approaching, residents are asking: Why?
The unusually snowy weather may be related to factors such as El Niño, experts say.
And to some extent, said Jerry Stenger, director of the University of Virginia's climatology office, "We put it down as happenstance."
Winter storms in Virginia sometimes come in cycles, for reasons experts don't fully understand.
"Once we are in a situation where we are getting these storms, there is more of a tendency that they are going to continue," Stenger said.
These cycles can even include arrival times, he said, like this season's weekend storms in December and last weekend, as well as one expected this Friday and Saturday.
Forecasts vary for this next storm. Stenger said it could "easily pile up 15 to 22 inches of snow" if the moisture comes down entirely as snow.
Depending on factors including the temperature at ground level — expected to be right around freezing Friday night in Richmond — the moisture also could fall as rain, sleet or ice.
"This looks like it's going to be a significant event," Stenger said. "The problem is how that precipitation is going to come down."
Mike Rusnak, a National Weather Service meteorologist, said areas north and west of Richmond could get 4 inches of snow or more, with less in the city.
Parts of mountainous western Virginia could get more snow, and areas to the southeast could get mostly rain, Rusnak said.
David Tolleris, a commercial weather forecaster in Chesterfield County, said the Richmond area could get 4 to 8 inches of snow. He said there could be 15 inches or more in Charlottesville, 8 to 15 in Fredericksburg and 18 to 22 in Northern Virginia.
The forecasters agreed the storm is hard to judge this far out.
Richmond averages 12 to 13 inches of snow in winter. So far this winter more than 17 inches has fallen at Richmond International Airport. The last winter that Richmond got snowfall in the double digits was 1999-2000, when 15.4 inches fell.
Experts say this year's snows may be due in part to the influence of a weak El Niño pattern, a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Among other things, energy from El Niño helps push moisture and clouds — clouds bring down temperatures — to southern states, experts say.
Also, an east-flowing current of upper-atmosphere air known as the polar jet stream has dropped farther south than normal this winter, allowing unusually cold air into southern states, Tolleris said.
When it comes to the secret behind all this snow, Tolleris said, "It's not global warming, it's not the end of the world and it's not mass hysteria."
Rex Springston writes for The Richmond Times-Dispatch.
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