Perriello, Hurt tied in poll; Goode might shake up race

A new poll of 5th Congressional District voters suggests that U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-5th, would beat the majority of his Republican challengers and would tie the GOP's "frontrunner" candidate.

Perriello, a freshman Democrat, is tied with state Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham, with 44 percent each, according to a poll of 924 registered voters released Thursday by Public Policy Polling.

Perriello enjoys a 46-42 lead over Albemarle County Supervisor Kenneth C. Boyd, a 45-37 advantage over Moneta real estate developer Jim McKelvey, a 45-36 lead over North Garden commercial airline pilot Michael McPadden, and a 44-34 edge over Ivy real estate investor Laurence Verga, according to the poll.

The poll was conducted between Feb. 5 and Wednesday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points.

Perriello's press secretary, Jessica Barba, said the poll shows the congressman is on strong footing to win a second term.

"I think this shows that despite what you hear from the pundits and despite the year of negative ads by the health insurance companies, citizens in the 5th District recognize that Congressman Perriello is working hard for them and standing up for their interests against the special interests," Barba said.

Hurt, in a statement, noted that the poll shows he is the field's "strongest" challenger. "Virginians are responding to the clear contrast between me and Congressman Perriello," he said. "My message of cutting government spending, reducing taxes on small businesses and families, and focusing on job creation is resonating with voters."

Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, said Perriello appears to be in better shape than some assumed.

"I expected Perriello to be in worse shape than he is," he said.

When Perriello was challenging six-term GOP congressman Virgil H. Goode Jr. in 2008, polls showed Perriello trailed by as many as 34 points. Perriello overcame those odds to unseat Goode in the nation's closest congressional race of that year.

The new poll indicates that Perriello heads into his first re-election fight with far better odds than last time.

The poll's results were not all rosy for Perriello. The poll found that 42 percent of the district's voters approve of his performance, while 46 percent do not.

"The district may be experiencing some buyer's remorse with Tom," said Albemarle GOP Chairman Christian Schoenewald. "The poll tells me that he didn't live up to the hype."

Boyd's spokesman, Paul Wright, pointed out that the Albemarle County supervisor and Perriello are within the poll's margin of error.

"The fact that we start this campaign in a statistical tie with Congressman Perriello indicates that many voters already realize that Ken is the one conservative who has the lifetime of experience cutting budgets through his financial business and as a conservative supervisor that it will take to cut runaway federal spending," Wright said in a statement.

One major caveat, Verga said, is that it is only February and Election Day is a long way off.

"It is too early in the process to read anything into a survey about the Republican challengers in this race," he said. "However, it is clear Congressman Perriello, like Democrats around the country, is very vulnerable and I expect his numbers to continue to drop as people focus on his record in Congress."

The poll examines several scenarios involving a three-way race in which a conservative independent candidate runs against both Perriello and Hurt.

Some GOP activists view Hurt as "too moderate" because of several votes in the General Assembly, most notably his support of a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004. Hurt's campaign disputes this characterization, saying he has a long history of voting for lower taxes and has top ratings from conservative groups. But that hasn't stopped speculation that another conservative candidate might choose to jump in and make it a three-way race.

Goode, a Democrat-turned-independent-turned Republican, has declined to rule out a bid as an independent, saying only that he stands by his statement that he would not run for the GOP nomination against Perriello. If Goode were to run, the poll suggests, he would shake up the race in a tremendous way.

If Goode ran as an independent, he and Perriello would tie at 41 percent, according to the poll. Hurt would receive just 12 percent of the vote, the poll found.

"Right now it's clear this will be a closely contested race," Dean Debnam, Public Policy Polling's president, said in a news release. "What Virgil Goode ends up deciding to do is a pretty significant factor though. If he decided to run as a Republican, he'd probably be the favorite."

The poll also looked at the possibility of a three-way race involving Perriello, Hurt and an unnamed candidate backed by the district's conservative Tea Parties. In that scenario, Perriello wins with 44 percent, Hurt receives 27 percent and the Tea Party candidate gets 19 percent.

The primary to choose Perriello's GOP opponent will be held June 8.

McNeill is a staff writer for The Daily Progress in Charlottesville.