Scientists at the University of Virginia and other institutions are closer to showing that radical changes in an ecosystem can be detected before they happen.
The research team shared its discoveries from a three-year study of two Michigan lakes in a recent issue of the journal Science. Michael Pace, a UVa professor of environmental sciences, said the experiment raised critical questions about ecosystems.
“There is a potential to foresee coming changes in ecosystems based on observing their variations through time,” Pace said. “This study is a small step in that direction.”
Jon Cole, a senior scientist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in New York, said the research could give scientists a better chance to intervene in an ecosystem in crisis.
“This is akin to being able to predict a heart attack from other vital signs,” Cole said. “Once the heart attack is actually under way, it may be too late to be able to successfully intervene.”
The study, which was funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation’s Ecosystem Studies Program, focused on a pair of natural lakes at a field station belonging to the University of Notre Dame. Paul Lake served as a control lake while the larger Peter Lake was manipulated for the study.
Stephen R. Carpenter, director of the Center for Limnology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said the scientists started adding a few largemouth bass to Peter Lake. Pace said the researchers had instruments that measured the conditions of the lake, such as the concentration of phytoplankton, every five minutes.
Carpenter said the scientists realized over time that there were several detectible early warning signals of a changing ecosystem, the most important of which was variable measurements in small time increments.
The researcher said the scientists realized a few years ago that regime shifts in ecosystems should have detectible early warnings.
“Until we did the study, all of the evidence was from models and mathematics,” Carpenter said.
Cole said the next step in the study is to create a different kind of regime shift in the lake to test the robustness of the theory. However, the researchers are in the process of seeking grant funding for further work. Carpenter said the scientists will study the lakes for one more year, with tests resuming this week.
Email
Facebook
Google
Twitter
Favorites
More
Advertisement