Democrats lead many state Senate races in number of contributors

Buried in reports about hundreds of thousands of dollars amassed by Democratic candidates for this fall’s potentially pivotal state Senate elections is another telling statistic:  Most of the Democrats have a larger number of cash contributors than their Republican opponents.

The trend in both dollars and donors was apparent in the new 22^nd Senate district, where Democrat Bert Dodson of Lynchburg held a $276,000-to-$143,000 advantage in total fund raising over Republican Tom Garrett in reports to the State Board of Elections Aug. 31.

Dodson held a similar – 320-to-190 – advantage in his number of cash donations, an edge that can lead many of those contributors to persuade friends to vote, or become campaign workers in phone banks and door-to-door work.

“More investors signals a broader commitment” to a candidate, said Dan Palazzolo, a political analyst at the University of Richmond. 

Dodson said that, “When people give candidates money, they have got some skin in the game,” and often are willing to invest their time as well.

Garrett, without going into specifics about where he expects to raise more money, said, “Our next campaign finance report will be dramatically different from our last,” which showed just $8,670 on hand after he won a five-candidate GOP primary on Aug. 23. More than $500,000 was spent by the candidates.

Fund-raising alone rarely decides the winner in elections, although it can be a barometer for a candidate’s success, said Kyle Kondik, political analyst at the U.Va. Center for Politics.

“As long as the candidates have what they feel they need to win – maybe not as much as incumbent opponents, but enough for them to get out their message – it doesn’t really matter where the money comes from,” Kondik wrote in an email.

Senate Democratic candidates had $3.7 million cash on hand compared to $2.9 million for Republican candidates as of Sept. 15, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan tracker of money in state politics.

Among five of the highest-profile races, Democrats held a 3,700-to-1,400 lead in the number of cash contributors.

Virginia Republicans, however, are preparing a top-down assault for November.

The GOP has amassed $1.4 million in the state Republican Party coffers in September.

Gov. Bob McDonnell has added to the party’s cash reserves this month by holding several big-ticket fund raisers that collected at least $265,000 for his Opportunity Virginia PAC.

McDonnell’s PAC had $3 million on hand June 30; its next full report is due Oct. 15.

Typically, the GOP waits until October to spread its cash among candidates whose internal poll results show they have a good chance of winning close races.

This year, the party is counting on that cash to help it take control of the Senate, where Democrats have a 22-18 advantage.

Capturing two Democrat seats would give the GOP control of both houses of the General Assembly in addition to the governor’s office, and would clear the way for more of McDonnell’s agenda to be approved.

McDonnell already has distributed at least $283,000 among five Republican candidates who are challenging Democratic incumbents.

Sen. Bill Stanley, R-Franklin County, got $93,000 from the governor in a bid to unseat Sen. Roscoe Reynolds, D-Henry County. 

Also, Sen. Steve Newman, R-Lynchburg, contributed $50,000 to Stanley’s campaign.

Stanley’s TV commercials have been running for about two weeks, making him the first Senate candidate to hit the air in the Lynchburg-Roanoke market.

Three other Republican candidates – Bryce Reeves of Spotsylvania, Mickey Chohany of  Newport News and Adam Light of Richlands – have received $50,000 each from McDonnell’s PAC, and Del. Dave Nutter of Christiansburg has received $40,000.

Democratic candidates in the five races where McDonnell already is active have gathered 3,700 cash contributions from individuals, according to VPAP data.

Their five Republican opponents have 1,400 individual cash contributors.

Two political analysts – Kondik of UVa and Quentin Kidd of Christopher Newport University – said the Republicans’ practice of controlled fund-raising and spending could reduce the number of people who contribute directly to the candidates.

“Having the governor’s PAC is a good backstop for Republican candidates, but it also may be making candidates less zealous about raising money,” Kondik said.

Kidd said he thought Democratic incumbents in the Senate “have really tacked a moderate course” and focused on state-level issues as if they were really local issues.

“That’s why you see their fund-raising being larger, wider and deeper than the Republicans who are challenging them,” Kidd said.