LU in the football playoff hunt, but nothing's guaranteed

Tuesday, Big South Conference commissioner Kyle Kallander submitted a report to the NCAA FCS playoff committee on Liberty, the conference’s only potential playoff team.

Kallander was on hand last weekend in Boiling Springs, N.C., to watch the Flames beat Gardner-Webb. And with Liberty involved in Sunday’s Big South men’s soccer title match, Kallander spent plenty of time with LU athletics director Jeff Barber, talking about how the conference should present Liberty to the committee.

Of course, all of this becomes moot if the Flames don’t win Saturday at Stony Brook. Though the Flames are already assured of at least a share of the Big South football title, they’ll fall out of playoff contention with a loss, and Stony Brook will be plenty motivated to play with a piece of the championship on the line.

But if Liberty does win, the Flames will present the selection committee with a more compelling case for one of the eight at-large bids to 16-team tournament than they did last season. Though Liberty ended the season with an impressive win over a ranked Elon team, the Flames couldn’t shake the stain of a loss at Presbyterian, which won just four games in 2008.

Flames coach Danny Rocco has chosen to let his administrators do the playoff stumping for him. It’s not in his — or his team’s — best interests to worry about what FCS games across the country will help Liberty’s playoff hopes.

“I try not to worry about things that I can’t control,” Liberty quarterback Tommy Beecher said. “I’d love to make it to the playoffs. It’s one of my main goals here. But if it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen. I’m preparing for the last game of my career this Saturday. It’s my last chance to go out and play the best game of my career.”

Indeed, because the Big South champion does not earn an automatic bid to the playoffs until next season, this group’s playoff chances are at the mercy of the selection committee, which is comprised of 10 athletics directors from across the country.

The committee is separated into four regions. Two of the four committee chairpersons have intimate knowledge of the Flames’ program. Coastal Carolina AD Moose Koegel, the South region chairperson, has watched the Flames beat his team in three straight seasons. Lafayette AD Bruce McCutcheon, the East region chairperson, was on hand in September as the Flames beat his Leopards in Easton, Pa.

In addition, there are regional advisory committees in place to help the main regional committees compile information over the course of the season. VMI’s Donny White is on the South advisory committee.

That’s not to say that these members will exhibit favoritism toward Liberty. But the Flames are still a relative unknown among national FCS circles, and these members can help dispense valuable information.

Liberty stands 17th in the latest GPI (Gridiron Power Index), which is a BCS-style ranking of FCS teams that takes into account human polls and computer rankings. The Flames are ranked anywhere from 14th to 18th by the computers and sit 16th in The Sports Network poll and 17th in the FCS coaches poll.

Only one Big South team has ever earned an at-large playoff berth, Coastal Carolina in 2006. The Chanticleers finished 9-2 that year, went unbeaten in conference play and had a signature win over an eight-win Furman team that finished second in an auto-bid conference.

If that resume sounds familiar, it should. If Liberty wins Saturday, it will be 9-2, unbeaten in conference play and own a signature win over an (at least) eight-win Lafayette team that will finish second in an auto-bid conference.

Entering the playoffs that season, Coastal was ranked 20th in the GPI, and three teams eligible to be selected as an at-large were passed over for three much lower-ranked teams. Portland State (7-4) was 10th in the GPI and had a win against FBS New Mexico and losses to two other FBS teams.

Northern Iowa (7-4) was 12th but had two awful losses — to then-Division II North Dakota and a 5-6 Western Illinois team.

San Diego (11-1) was ranked 13th but was not considered a serious playoff contender because it played in the non-scholarship Pioneer League. USD played just one full-scholarship team that season — UC Davis (6-5) — and lost 27-17.

Coastal Carolina, Montana State (7-4, No. 22) and Eastern Illinois (8-4, No. 26) earned the final at-large spots that season.

Heading into the final week, Liberty is squarely on the playoff bubble, battling for position with teams like Eastern Washington (11), Weber State (14), McNeese State (15) and Montana State (20).

EWU (7-3) finishes at Northern Arizona (5-5), which is ranked 23rd in the GPI. Weber State (6-4) hosts Cal Poly (4-6), but the Wildcats’ only quality victory came at Eastern Washington, and the committee has historically shied away from selecting four-loss teams unless there is a dearth of quality two- and three-loss teams.

Montana State (7-3) hosts Montana (10-0), and a Bobcat victory in the “Brawl of the Wild” game would nearly certainly propel MSU into the postseason.

McNeese State (8-2) finishes at home against Central Arkansas (5-5), and another Southland bubble team, Stephen F. Austin (8-2), plays winless Northwestern State. Another team worth watching is Elon, which is 8-2 but has no quality wins and is coming off a loss at home to Appalachian State. The Phoenix finish Saturday at Samford (5-5), and a loss would put them in a precarious spot.

Even if none of these games go Liberty’s way, the committee could throw a curveball and select a 9-2 Liberty team anyway. Which is why most in Liberty’s camp aren’t stressing too much about what happens around the country.

It’s completely out of the Flames’ control.

“We know if we don’t win, we won’t be in, so this is a must win game for us,” Liberty’s Mike Brown said. “The only thing we can control is if we win or not. Hopefully, we can do that, get the victory, and the selection committee will take it from there.”