Asheville still No. 1, but Coastal lurking

We’re starting to hit the home stretch in the Big South basketball season. Every team has made the turn into the second half of its schedule and the BracketBusters opponents have been revealed. RPI is courtesy of realtimerpi.com; True record shows how well a team is playing regards to its schedule. One point for a road win, nothing for a home win or road loss, minus-one point for a home loss. Let’s get to it:

1. UNC ASHEVILLE (16-7, 11-1)
Last week’s rank: 1
RPI: 124 (up six from last week)
True record: 5 (6-0 road, 5-1 home)
Last week’s results: beat High Point, 90-70; beat Campbell, 95-84
This week: Today at VMI; Saturday at Liberty
BracketBusters draw: at Ohio (#71 RPI)
Skinny: If Asheville is going to falter, it’ll be in the next two weeks. The Bulldogs play three of their next four conference games on the road, including matchups with VMI (unbeaten at home) and Coastal Carolina (second place in the league). Tonight’s matchup features the teams ranked second (VMI) and third (Asheville) in the nation in scoring offense. Asheville has won 10 of its last 11 games, with the only loss coming to Charleston Southern on the back end of a four-games-in-eight-days stretch.

2. COASTAL CAROLINA (16-5, 9-2)
Last week’s rank: 2
RPI: 141 (+13)
True record: 4 (4-2 road, 5-0 home)
Last week’s results: beat Presbyterian, 52-49; beat Gardner-Webb, 70-56
This week: Saturday vs. Charleston Southern, Tuesday vs. Campbell
BracketBusters draw: vs. Tennessee Tech (#181 RPI)
Skinny: The Chanticleers don’t play until Saturday, but when they do, it opens their five-games-in-10-days stretch that includes home matchups with the other three teams in the top four of the league standings. If VMI can knock off Asheville tonight in Lexington, Coastal may just become the favorite to win the league’s regular-season schedule thanks to the favorable February schedule. All three road games are against teams outside of the top four -- Winthrop, Liberty, VMI. I’m not sure anyone -- Asheville included -- is going into Conway and winning in the regular season.

3. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (14-7, 8-3)
Last week’s rank: 4
RPI: 138 (+3)
True record: 2 (3-2 road, 5-1 home)
Last week’s results: beat Presbyterian, 75-64
This week: Today at Campbell; Saturday at Coastal Carolina
BracketBusters draw: vs. Wofford (#161 RPI)
Skinny: Charleston Southern opens the weekend 2 ½ games behind Asheville for first place in the league, and remember, CSU will win the tiebreaker with the Bulldogs since CSU won the lone regular-season meeting. We’ll know by the end of the weekend if that tiebreaker is relevant. The Buccaneers’ two games this week will decide if they’re battling for a league title or if they’re battling to stay inside the top four. If they can somehow sneak out a road sweep, the schedule is extremely favorable the rest of the way, with home games against Liberty, High Point and Gardner-Webb and roadies against VMI and Radford.

4. CAMPBELL (14-10, 8-4)
Last week’s rank: 3
RPI: 177 (-21)
True record: 2 (3-3 road, 5-1 home)
Last week’s results: lost to Gardner-Webb, 78-72; lost to UNC Asheville, 95-84
This week: Today vs. Charleston Southern; Saturday vs. Presbyterian
BracketBusters draw: at Northwestern State (#175 RPI)
Skinny: Campbell’s hopes of winning the conference title went down the drain in western North Carolina last week. The Camels are three games back of Asheville and lost both meetings with the Bulldogs, and they finish with three out of five on the road to end league play. The Camels will play their home finale on Feb. 9 against Winthrop. Campbell’s best hope is to play for the No. 3 seed and avoid a potential tournament semifinal matchup with Asheville.

5. VMI (11-10, 6-5)
Last week’s rank: 7
RPI: 259 (+10)
True record: 1 (1-5 road, 5-0 home)
Last week’s results: beat Radford, 65-50
This week: Today vs. UNC Asheville; Saturday vs. Winthrop
BracketBusters draw: vs. William & Mary (#306)
Skinny: The Keydets finally got off the road hump by grinding out a win at Radford last Thursday. The home record is nice, but it will be tested in February. VMI’s five league wins at home came against the seventh, eighth, ninth, 10th and 11th place teams in the conference. You can look at that two ways. You can say the Keydets haven’t beaten anybody at home. Or you can say they have a major opportunity for a late-season push because they get the top three teams in the league at home in February. If anyone in this 5-7 group is going to crack the top four, it’ll be VMI.

6. GARDNER-WEBB (10-13, 5-6)
Last week’s rank: 6
RPI: 268 (E)
True record: -1 (1-4 road, 3-2 home)
Last week’s results: beat Campbell, 78-72; lost to Coastal Carolina, 70-56
This week: Today at Liberty; Saturday at High Point
BracketBusters draw: vs. Delaware State (#297 RPI)
Skinny: The Bulldogs will be in a fight the rest of the way just to stay in the top six and avoid a play-in game in the Big South tournament. They have a couple of “should wins” left on the schedule (Radford and Presbyterian at home). But the Bulldogs have not been good away from Boiling Springs this season. The only road conference win came against Radford, and their only other road victories came at Lipscomb (11-12) and Chattanooga (9-14). At minimum, they need a split of this weekend’s trip along the U.S. 29 corridor, because the final two road games are brutal: at Charleston Southern and UNC Asheville.

7. WINTHROP (9-14, 6-6)
Last week’s rank: 5
RPI: 276 (-10)
True record: -1 (2-3 road, 4-3 home)
Last week’s results: beat Liberty, 65-63; lost to High Point, 52-47
This week: Today at Radford; Saturday at VMI
BracketBusters draw: at Appalachian State (#232)
Skinny: Winthrop really could have cemented a spot in the top six by beating High Point last Saturday, but the Eagles inexplicably failed to score in the final four-plus minutes and lost at home to a team that just seems to have the Eagles’ number of late. Winthrop has gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss in its last seven games, so it figures the Eagles will win tonight at Radford. But the remaining road games are difficult: VMI, Campbell and UNC Asheville. Plus there’s a home game with Coastal Carolina. The only “gimme” left on the schedule is the Valentine’s Day game against Presbyterian. Winthrop has to keep a wary eye on High Point, since the Panthers own the tiebreaker. Liberty is less of a worry, since Winthrop swept the Flames.

8. LIBERTY (8-15, 3-8)
Last week’s rank: 8
RPI: 322 (+1)
True record: -1 (2-5 road, 1-3 home)
Last week’s results: lost to Winthrop, 65-63; beat Radford, 67-65
This week: Today vs. Gardner-Webb; Saturday vs. UNC Asheville
BracketBusters draw: at Morgan State (#262 RPI)
Skinny: So what should LU fans be rooting for in regards to getting into the top six? First, the Flames will probably have to get to 8-10, meaning they have to go 5-2 against a remaining schedule that features four games against the top four. Liberty absolutely has to beat Gardner-Webb, VMI and Presbyterian. If it loses any one of those games, the pursuit of the top six is over. Then the Flames need to steal two from the remaining games against UNC Asheville (home), Charleston Southern (away), Coastal Carolina (home) and Campbell (home). Even if they go 5-2, they’ll need Winthrop or VMI to utterly collapse down the stretch. Winthrop is the more likely team to stumble because of a tougher schedule, but the Flames would need Winthrop to go 1-5 in its remaining six games to finish ahead of the Eagles. So, in conclusion, the most likely thing to shoot for is that No. 7 seed, which gets you a home game against Radford in the tournament’s first round and a meeting with the No. 2 seed on a neutral court in the quarterfinals. That’s much more palatable than a home game with High Point and a game against the No. 1 seed on its home floor.

9. HIGH POINT (8-14, 4-8)
Last week’s rank: 9
RPI: 286 (+10)
True record: -1 (2-5 road, 2-3 home)
Last week’s results: lost to UNC Asheville, 90-70; beat Winthrop, 52-47
This week: Today vs. Presbyterian; Saturday vs. Gardner-Webb
BracketBusters draw: at Stephen F. Austin (#275 RPI)
Skinny: If only the Panthers could play Winthrop every night. High Point snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over the Eagles last Saturday and remained in the hunt for a top six spot. In reality, High Point is only one game behind Winthrop because of the season sweep. HPU cannot afford another home loss, as the Panthers get Presbyterian, Gardner-Webb, Radford and Campbell, all winnable game. The road games are tough, at Coastal Carolina and Charleston Southern. If the Panthers hold serve, they’ll get to 8-10. Liberty fans should obviously be rooting for the Panthers to slip at home.

10. PRESBYTERIAN COLLEGE (8-13, 2-9)
Last week’s rank: 10
RPI: 278 (-8)
True record: -5 (1-3 road, 1-6 home)
Last week’s results: lost to Coastal Caroina, 52-49; lost to Charleston Southern, 75-64
This week: Today at High Point; Saturday at Campbell
BracketBusters draw: at Jacksonville State (#267)
Skinny: Presbyterian has lost seven straight and seems to gone completely off the rails. The Blue Hose finish with five of their seven games on the road and appear destined to finish right where they sit now, in 10th, just ahead of Radford.

11. RADFORD (4-20, 1-11)
Last week’s rank: 11
RPI: 335 (-13)
True record: -5 (0-6 road, 1-5 home)
Last week’s results: lost to VMI, 65-60; lost to Liberty, 67-65
This week: Today vs. Winthrop
BracketBusters draw: vs. Binghamton (#344)
Skinny: Boy, I’m sure when ESPN started putting this whole BracketBusters thing together, they must have been salivating about the thought of matching up teams No. 335 and 344 in the RPI. At the very least, that should be a home win for the Highlanders, who have been extremely competitive of late but just aren’t mature enough to pull out games at the end. Javonte Green is going to be a very good player in this league for four years, and so is R.J. Price. One more month to get your Radford jokes in, folks. The Highlanders will be no worse than middle of the pack next season.