A study in efficiency

In watching games at High Point and Radford the last two weeks, I noticed both schools use the Sidearm stats platform for their live stats. The Sidearm stats include efficiency ratings for each player, and it made me curious about Liberty’s players, which ones were the most efficient and which ones weren’t.

Not surprisingly, point guard Jesse Sanders grades out high in efficiency. He piles up stats in a ton of categories, doesn’t miss a ton of field goals or free throws and has a strong assist-to-turnover ratio.

I used the NBA efficiency formula to put together a list of where Liberty’s players stand. This is not John Hollinger’s extremely complicated PER formula, which would require a degree in mathematics to decipher. I did OK in Calculus in college, but sadly, that was long ago. The NBA efficiency formula is much simpler, which is why basketball stat heads went searching for something better. That’s understandable. Still, it gives a solid indication of a player’s across-the-board production.

The formula: points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks - FG missed - FT missed - turnovers. That gives you a number, which you divide by number of games played to determine efficiency. The list for Liberty:

Jesse Sanders………....21.9
Antwan Burrus………...13.2
John Caleb Sanders…..9.2
David Minaya……….......9.1
Tavares Speaks……...…8.6
Joel Vander Pol……....…5.8
Tomasz Gielo………....…4.5
Chene Phillips………......2.6
Stephen Baird……….....2.3
Andrew Smith……….....1.5
Ethan Layer…………......1.2
Kelly Assinesi………......0.1
Walt Aikens………….....-0.5
Tanner Hoyt………..…..-0.6

For comparison’s sake, Sanders’ 21.9 would rank him in a tie for 13th on the NBA list with Miami’s Chris Bosh. At 32.0, Lebron James is the NBA leader in the category. Obviously, we’re comparing apples to oranges here, but it shows that 21.9 is a pretty high level of basketball.

The fun begins when you then take those numbers and extrapolate them out to what a player can do per 40 minutes if they played at the above level. Take the base number (for Jesse Sanders, it’s 503), divide it by minutes played to get a per-minute average, then multiply that number by the full amount of minutes possible. For Sanders, it was 920 in 23 games. Then divide that number again by games played to get the beefed up average. The results:

Jesse Sanders………...….25.4
Antwan Burrus…….....…17.9
Andrew Smith………....…16.3
Joel Vander Pol……….....15.1
John Caleb Sanders….…14.1
David Minaya……….....….11.8
Tavares Speaks…..………11.6
Stephen Baird………...…..11.3
Tomasz Gielo………...…..10.8
Chene Phillips………....…..8.5
Ethan Layer…………....…..7.5
Kelly Assinesi…….....…….1.8
Walt Aikens…………....….-3.7
Tanner Hoyt…………..….-13.3

So there’s Andrew Smith, who usually gets into games for very short spurts midway through the first half, at No. 3 on the team? Certainly shows just how well Smith has used his minutes. The easy answer is to say Smith should get more playing time, but of course, it’s not that simple. He’s still a major work in progress on defense, and the more time he plays, his turnovers go up, thus effecting his efficiency. What it does show is that there is a base of talent there, and by the end of the year, if the Flames can get, say, eight minutes of production at that level over the current one or two, it could be a huge boost for the team.

Minaya’s efficiency level is average because he misses too many shots (a team-high 137). Speaks’ level is average because he has 40 turnovers, which is a very high number for a player who isn’t a primary ball handler. John Caleb Sanders mixes the worst of both (124 missed field goals, 38 turnovers), which lowers his efficiency considerably.

The most interesting name there is Joel Vander Pol, who sits fourth on the projected efficiency per 40 minutes list. For a guy who doesn’t play a ton of minutes, Vander Pol gets to the free-throw line often. He’s been to the line nine more times than Burrus despite playing 14 fewer minutes per game. But he also gets into foul trouble often, which limits his minutes and his physicality.

What’s the takeaway from this little exercise? Well, if the Flames are going to make a run in February, and they certainly have an opportunity with five of seven Big South games at home, they’ll need more production from Smith and Vander Pol. And judging by the pure numbers, both players have it in them.